So the markets are in turmoil with an incredible amount of volatility. Some people are screaming about another Great Depression or a long term recession. A few are claiming that the sky is falling and we are all doomed. Regardless of these points of view, we are in a period of uncertainty (the political rhetoric and impending election aren’t helping either).
I’ve talked before about how important perception is, and how prophecy can be self-fulfilling. If we keep telling ourselves that we are destined for failure, we will most definitely find ourselves arriving there sooner rather than later. No thank you.
Now is absolutely not the right time to duck and cover, run screaming into the night, or hide under the bed gnashing your teeth. America is not in its death throes, and capitalism is not broken beyond repair. The stock market will recover (although this may be delayed depending on who wins the white house) and we will emerge stronger. Yes, I do think that the fundamentals of our nation and economy are sound. We are just experiencing a bump in the road because of bad practices in some sectors. Sure, these bumps are pretty big and they are far reaching, but that doesn’t change the larger picture. If you break your foot, you are going to have to limp for a while and it’s going to hurt, but you aren’t going to DIE. Even better, when your foot heals, the bones will be stronger.
If you have ever thought “I wish I invested back in 2xxxx when stocks were cheaper”, now is your chance. Whether we are in a correction or a massive drop due to investor lack of confidence or fear, there are a lot of opportunities out there that are undervalued now and won’t be for long. We may not have reached the bottom yet, but investing in stocks is something you do with an eye on the long term, not day to day gains or losses.
You know, I was going to write a lot more for this post, but I think I will instead copy/paste an excerpt from an email I sent to someone earlier this week.
* * *
Obviously the country is in a pretty bad way, and I won’t get into the reasons why, they should be pretty self-evident if you have been watching the news and financial markets. I don’t think we are headed for another great depression, and I don’t think we are on the verge of spiraling down into a recession either. I do think that we are in for a tough ride in the short term, but ultimately I am very bullish on the economy, the markets, and our nation in general. These are exciting times for people willing to look ahead and roll up their sleeves…the opportunities are there.
I think if we pull back and look at things from some position of altitude, we can see that there are normal cycles that occur throughout history in politics, markets, climate, etc. I feel that we are coming to the end of one cycle and another one is beginning. The current crisis is, in my mind, the same as the pain associated with shedding a skin or emerging from a cocoon.
If you consider all of the things that are going wrong right now, I think that these are actually to the benefit of the country. I have been saying for more than a few years now that the country has gotten lazy, our ambitious hunger for innovation and our hopeful spirit has been stunted, both by the dot com crash (which has had far reaching deleterious effects on technology development, venture capital markets, etc.), various corporate scandals (like Enron and the more current fiascos), and so on. All of this together is causing pressure to build that becomes a driving necessity to do, to change, to create, to risk, and to strive for something better. The middle class will rekindle its sense of entrepreneurial spirit and we will begin looking inward more…towards our local communities, churches, neighborhoods, etc. In every time of crisis, the people of this country always stand firm with resolve to survive and then surpass. It may take a few years, but I think we will come out of this much much stronger. I can’t stress enough how important it is that the shift back to community and locality is occurring…part because of the economy and its problems, but also because of how technology is changing and how we perceive, interact with, and consume media and information.
Getting back to the economy though, whether we are going through a correction or a short term loss, we will absolutely rebound. I do think it will be a long time before national confidence in real estate and the financial sector is restored, so I think that the opportunities in the future are going to be on energy, technology, and defense (for different reasons compared to energy/tech).
The interesting thing about tech though, especially in a handicapped economy where people begin looking for other ways to create or supplement income, is that tech is unique compared to other sectors in that it has the ability to rapidly create vast numbers of jobs and literally catalyze and cause direct change. While most of the recent focus in tech (driven by shortsighted VCs for the most part) has been with weak widgets, failed business models, and generic applications (copies of something else), change is coming.
The trends are moving towards where the user is and what they are doing…everything is becoming locative, geospatial, contextual, etc. Even ubiquitous computing is starting to become a reality…rumors are flying about a new apple laptop that is basically two touch-sensitive screens…no keyboard! Other rumors indicate that Steve Jobs is already looking ahead to cramming everything we have in the IPhone and IPod now into the form factor of a watch. Intel is investing heavily in new smaller and more powerful chips that are designed specifically for mobile devices with low power requirements (they are announcing the dual-core version of their ATOM chip very soon). The list goes on and on (I’ve been watching these trends for a few years now, and they are all converging and maturing…right now!).
For us, [note: I’m talking again about my startup] this represents a massive opportunity. Not only are we ahead of the curve in what we are thinking, but the thing we are attempting to develop has the potential to be monumental…the very backbone that ties all of these new mobile devices together, with interactive and immersive media that is directly personal and relevant to the user. Entire models change…no longer will things be one way consumption of media (website to person) for example. What we are building even has the potential to create entirely new professions (and as a result thousands and thousands of jobs). We are at the cusp of something amazing, but it will take a vast amount of work and tireless ambition to pull off.
Even if we aren’t the ones to do it, it is coming. The country needs something new, it needs innovation, it needs hope and belief, and it needs to be cultivated, facilitated, and enabled. I firmly believe that tech, as a whole, can contribute to the future of this country, but it is greatly hampered by the shortsighted VCs, the greedy big company CEOs, the corrupt politicians, and the get rich quick schemers. It is much more difficult to start something these days because of the lack of capital (particularly tech oriented seed), but this simply drives innovation into basements and garages…it may take longer to emerge, but it will.
So, I’m pretty excited about our country’s future. I think the short term road is going to be long and fraught with risk and obstacles, but I believe in the human spirit and this great country.
Getting back to the topic at hand, if some things tilt one way instead of the other, we will find ourselves on the brink of another great period of innovation, advancement, and tremendous change. Expect to see things over the next ten years that will dwarf the measure of change that the PC revolution brought us. The world is indeed changing, and we have the opportunity to be involved.
That’s what I think. I plan on being part of it and doing what I can to spark change, growth, and innovation myself.
* * *
My email continued on talking about my current startup and some other things you would probably find boring. I think what I am trying to communicate is that you shouldn’t be worried about the current economic turbulence, and that there is a lot of opportunity out there to be seized by the bold and daring.
I also think there is a huge shift occuring in the tech and media sectors. I’ll probably blog about this in my next post and expound on some of my comments here.
Fear is the mind-killer (it will kill your portfolio as well). The spice must flow. Venture capitalists and investors must embrace risk and return their focus on creating wealth, new companies, and jobs. This is a good way to fast-track the recovery of our economy. Remember, you can dramatically mitigate risk in a startup, but you can’t dramatically increase the potential in an existing company. We also need to move away from widgets and “me too” companies, funding ventures with no real discernable business model, etc. Use your heads people.
1) Don’t be greedy.
2) Build value, not widgets.
3) Business model before funding.
4) Don’t limit vision to silicon valley and wall street.
5) Don’t be afraid of innovation or risk.
6) Aspire, Create, Build, Grow.