Future Vision

Microsoft Steamrolls Everyone with HoloLens

Within days of Google cancelling its Glass Explorer program, Microsoft just steamrolled the whole augmented reality and virtual reality industries with the announcements (and demos) of the new Microsoft HoloLens.

The take-away: Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality are coming. They aren't just fads. There is still a long way to go to reach what we all imagine and hope for, but Microsoft just made a giant step forward, and has the capability to drive hard and go big. 

Before I dig into this, let me make a few points for clarification:

  • No, they aren't really holograms. The HoloLens is another wearable device with transparent displays, just like more than a dozen other companies have on the market.
  • This is augmented reality, not virtual reality. If you aren't sure about the difference, read my other blog posts on the subject. 
  • And no, I have not had a hands-on experience with these yet, so keep that in mind as you read through my comments. I'm making a few assumptions about the tech and experience, and accepting what other people are saying (including the marketing) at face value (for now).
  • This post is based on my initial thoughts about what I've read so far regarding HoloLens, and some general observations about the industry.
Microsoft's HoloLens

Microsoft's HoloLens

Shock and Awe

For me at least, HoloLens is quite unexpected, especially the timing, and how well put together everything seems to be. It seems like a more complete package than anything else out there, and the demo examples were very compelling. I mean, come on...exploring mars, playing minecraft in the living room, and having a remote person guide you through a task and literally marking up objects in front of you with arrows and stuff. Pretty awesome.

The reliance here is on the demo, not some fancy concept marketing video. I feel like I could expect to have this in my hands any time, compared to some other products that feel like they are going to be in development for a few more years before anything substantial is released.

After reading a few articles on the demos from USA TodayCNet, Wired, The Verge, and others, I got the sense that those that were fortunate enough to experience HoloLens were pretty blown away and excited. I mean, this is MICROSOFT we are talking about. When was the last time you heard someone really excited about something Microsoft is doing?

All that aside, I think that the eventual impact of HoloLens is pretty understated right now. Sure, people will talk a lot about augmented reality and minecraft or whatever, but there is more at play here, and the shockwaves are still tiny right now, but they will turn into a major force as the Spring turns into Summer.

Name of the Game

Why did Microsoft go with "Holo" for HoloLens, and why are they calling everything Holograms? While technically incorrect, this is definitely a master stroke by some genius at Microsoft.

  • Everyone knows what holograms are. Most people are clueless about augmented reality, even if you give them the usual Iron Man and Minority Report examples. Virtual Reality is easier to explain, but I find that you still have to explain it to people and even then, more blank stares than not. But holograms...very accessible. "It's like real 3D holograms in your living room! Imagine Princess Leia and R2D2!". Done. People get that.
  • When you name or label something, that puts you in control or at least makes you the perceived authority. 
  • "Augmented Reality" is a mouthful and not very euphonic. I've had this discussion with many people in the industry and most have expressed some desires to find another name or description for the tech. Microsoft just did it for everyone. Watch now as everyone (especially marketers) start using variations of holograms and holo-. Heck, I bet every domain variation with the word holo in it will be scooped up in a matter of days. How will Microsoft respond? Will they try to enforce branding and trademark to some degree?

Augmented Reality's Dirty Little Secret

Well, two dirty little secrets. Dirty secret number one...augmented reality, seen through wearables with transparent displays are, well, transparent. Without some black or opaque background, any graphics on a transparent lens will be see-through. It doesn't matter how photorealistic it is, it will look a bit ghostly. Obviously this is different when you experience augmented reality on a mobile device like a smartphone or a tablet, but that is because the AR graphics are overlaid on a video on a screen that is not transparent.

This is definitely a negative, but since we are calling virtual objects and data that you see in AR holograms now, it suddenly makes sense and resets our biases and expectations a little bit.

The other dirty little secret is the actual window or field of view for wearable displays. The world doesn't magically change when you put on a pair of displays, but rather there is a small square or rectangular-ish space in each lens that you are looking through that can display graphics. This is one of the reasons why people wearing these move their heads around a lot, instead of just their eyes. We can still have some amazing experiences with the current-state-of-the-art, but this is one area where the hardware guys will be chipping away at for years to come, until we have full peripheral augmented, er "holographic" I mean, vision.

So, all those awesome concept videos videos for AR HMDs (head mounted displays) aren't quite what the actual experience is. Fortunately though, there is a growing number of researchers, developers, and startups working on this sort of thing. It won't be long.

Indoor, Outdoor

One thing that struck me about the HoloLens videos and use cases, is that they were all indoors. 

  • Transparent displays offer a dismal experience in brightly lit areas. This will ultimately be fixed when the whole opacity issue is sorted out. In the meantime, a dark shade or lens behind the transparent lenses helps, but that also diminishes the real world part of the experience and makes it harder to see real objects indoors.
  • If I'm going to wear some augmented reality glasses outside, they need to look like a pair of sunglasses. Not a Robocop dome or a bulky headband.

Having said that, all of the use cases were indoors, and that is likely where HoloLens and other AR products will excel. Microsoft played this well here. HoloLens doesn't have to be this amazing thing you use everywhere that does everything, helps you pick up dates, or make you look smarter or like a successful valley hipster.

Let's not forget about privacy

Remember all the complaints about Google Glass and privacy? HoloLens has a camera on it as well. I think the difference is you aren't likely to see someone wearing HoloLens at a bar, a stripclub, or at the movie theater, but still, the point remains. You need a camera feed for all of these awesome experiences (especially the one where your dad is giving you tips on how to fix the plumbing under the sink and needs to see what you are doing). 

Personally, I think all the privacy alarmists with Google Glass are making a big deal out of nothing. If Glass just added a tiny red "recording" light, it wouldn't be any different than snapping video with your smartphone. Everyone knows your camera is on and recording. If it is just on for computer vision tracking or image recognition of objects, no one should care and the light shouldn't need to be on. 

Anyone that complains about privacy with HoloLens is just going to be looking for attention or trolling.

Why is HoloLens such a big deal?

There are a variety of reasons, but the biggest one here is that we are talking about Microsoft. Microsoft is going to take augmented reality mainstream. Watch how many startups will suddenly appear to develop games and other apps for HoloLens. If Google doesn't wake up, Microsoft is going to eat their lunch, in more ways than one. Apple can keep filing overly broad patents all day long and hinting at i-this and i-that, but Microsoft is doing it now. Everyone is going to play catch up. I meant it when I said steamrolled. 

Something else to consider...the showcase of HoloLens at the Windows 10 premiere event is not to be ignored. I expect that there is more going on behind the scenes that is going to tie a lot of interesting things together, which is going to be awesome for consumers and developers.  We aren't talking about some fun hardware and maybe an SDK or yet another app store, or a cool AR demo based on one of the off-the-shelf AR platforms already out there...HoloLens is going to be tightly integrated into the whole Microsoft ecosystem and culture and all that entails. Half of the story is the HoloLens itself (hardware) but the real big deal in my opinion is everything else. Just think of these things will be integrated with the XBox. 

The industry is drowsy and mumbling in its sleep right now, but I expect that sometime in the very near future a lot of companies, developers, and investors are going to jolt awake as they realize what is going on, and the augmented reality war will really kick off. One happy result will be an acceleration in innovation and advancement (hardware and software) as everyone starts to try to leverage the platform for more amazing applications or compete directly with another ecosystem for market share. Anyway you look at it, Microsoft's HoloLens is going to make waves. 

Personally, I plan on surfing those waves. Speaking of which, Investors, Venture Capitalists, and the Press are always welcome to contact me and chat about the industry, what trends are evolving, where the opportunities are, and of course, what I'm working on. 

Thank you Microsoft. The future just got a bit more interesting. 

Feel free to chime in if you have a comment or a different perspective on what I'm talking about here. Seriously, leave a comment. Lots of comments means I'll publish blog posts more often (I know, I'm a slacker). Also, feel free to get me introduced to Alex Kipman at Microsoft. I want to see these things first hand. 

AR Fiction: Forensics and Crime Scene Analysis

This was originally posted in my personal blog (Dec 17, 2009), and I thought it would be better placed here in this section. I couldn't just move it without losing the comments or the original URL, so I'm just going to copy it here. Enjoy.

- Robert

In a recent post, I mentioned that I was a contributing author to Working Through Synthetic Worlds

Anyway, the format of the book is unique. As the description says:

The editors use a distinctive format for the book, consisting of a set of chapters composed of three parts: a story or vignette that describes work conducted within a synthetic world based loosely on the question, ‘what will work be like in the year 2025?’, founded on the expert authors’ expectations of plausible future technologies; a scholarly review of the technologies described by the stories and the current theories related to those technologies; and, a prescription for future research required to bridge the current state-of-the-art with the notional worlds described in the stories.

What I wanted to do here was share part of my chapter with you, at least just the fiction part. The rest of the chapter gets into the technical analysis, scholarly review, etc. This is the unedited version (the final is much cleaner), so please ignore any glaring writing errors. I hope you enjoy the short story…I might continue it at a later date depending on reader response (I had a limited amount of space to work with in the chapter).

******

The call had arrived at a little past two-thirty in the morning and Kendra had drawn the short straw to venture out in the freezing rain that had been cascading from an inky black sky for the last several hours. She waited at the stoplight, listening to the soft hum of her electric car and the turn signal’s metronome clicking away little segments of time. She was tempted to let her mind wander while staring at the glistening raindrops snaking their way down her windows and brightly lit by the stoplight. Kendra had always felt something mysterious about inclement weather in the middle of the night, especially when there were only few people on the roads heading to some unknown destination.  The only thing that could make the atmosphere a little more surreal would be snow materializing out of eternity and blanketing the city in silence, with only the reflections of street lights free to echo through the night.

The light finally changed to green and Kendra turned her mind back to the task at hand and drove the rest of the way to the crime scene, preparing herself for her work.

Kendra arrived at the scene and shouldered her way through the overly eager press reporters that had already gathered like hungry vultures desperate for a meal. She ignored their barrage of questions and ducked under the police cordon, showing her badge to the officers attempting to control the growing crowd. This was the fourth murder in as many days and the public was beginning to demand answers. She made her way across the driveway and up the brick stairs leading to the front door of the house, dodging the growing pools of rainwater that would soak her feet if she wasn’t careful.

She entered the house and waited while most of the other officers cleared out to give her some room. The medical examiner had already been on the scene and the bodies were taken away. Kendra could sync up her databases with the examiner’s later, it was time for her to do her own work now. She set down her bag and reached up to her glasses, tapping a barely noticeable touch sensitive key at the corner of the frames. A softly glowing heads up display pulsed into existence in front of her, immediately sensing her location in the real world and on the meta-net.

“Initialize.” she commanded. “Voice authentication: Alpha-Zulu-Romeo-Bravo-Zero-Niner-Seven.”

A nondescript male voice spoke in her ear. “Authenticated, Lieutenant Kendra Jackson, Enhanced Sensory Perception, ESPer Team 5”

“Begin scanning, crime scene, domestic, murder.” She began to look at every area of the room, making a few mental notes of things she would pay special attention to when she returned for her detail and evidence collection sweep. The voice spoke in her ear again. “Location confirmed. Date and time confirmed. Scanning in process. Comparing visual point cloud to public architectural records and builder plans. Synchronizing. Process complete.”

“Display wireframe” she said.

“Wireframe active. No anomalies detected.”

Faint blue lines appeared, following the course of the walls, the floor, the ceiling, the doorframes, and every other part of the house that she could see. It was like seeing a 3D blueprint of the house overlaid on the real thing. This served multiple purposes, but for now she needed it to act as a reference for the scale, positioning, and orientation of everything in the house, particularly any evidence she would come across. She remembered hearing stories of a SWAT team that had used augmented glasses and the wireframe to navigate through a pitch black office building where terrorists had cut the power and had set off multiple smoke bombs. They never knew what hit them. After that particular incident, Fire departments all over the country began requesting the same gear. Not being able to see where you were going in a smoke filled building was no longer a problem. You simply needed to follow the blue lines or the floating translucent red arrows that pointed towards the nearest exit. Life was so much easier with augmented reality and the glasses.

“Activate WATSON” she requested, almost without thinking. She had grown accustomed to working with the artificial life intelligent agent. Originally he was not much more than a tool that helped gather information and run intelligent semantic database searches, all wrapped up in a life sized human representation. Kendra had spent a lot of time and a fair amount of her own money to customize him to her liking and upgrade his program with a more realistic personality and some law enforcement grade functionality that was not available to the public.

“WATSON is now online.” The voice stated. She wondered if she should change her settings and give it a personality or if she preferred it to be completely devoid of any emotion. Having WATSON around was more than enough she guessed.

Kendra turned her head slightly and regarded WATSON, who was now standing in the middle of the room wearing his usual Victorian garb and peering at his surroundings while muttering to himself. He was faintly translucent, which was required by law for any virtual person, human controlled avatar or AI-driven persona. There were some public safety reasons for this and people generally preferred to keep it that way, mostly for the same reasons that humanoid synthetic androids were restricted from being too lifelike.

“WATSON, access the domestic security system and copy the logs from the last 72 hours” she said to her virtual companion while she began to start walking around each of the rooms on the first floor, observing everything.

WATSON nodded and pulled a worn leather-bound journal from thin air and started to make notes in it. He stopped muttering to himself and looked quite intent on his recording task. When he was finished, he walked out of the room, waddling slightly (he was a tad overweight, and it affected his walk cycle) and caught up with her.

When Kendra completed her initial walkthrough, she returned to where she began and started collecting evidence. Every bullet and casing were recovered, lasers used to determine angle of the bullet holes in the wall, fingerprints lifted, bloodstains sampled, and so on. By the time she was done, a highly detailed 3D mirror of the entire house had been created on the servers back at the station. Every photograph she took and corresponding video clips of everything she saw were also stored, but each was tagged with appropriate time and location data. She had taken the time to attach some notes and observations to a few key items and places of interest in the house. Anyone looking at the 3D version of the crime scene would have ready access to all of the data and her notes.

As Kendra was packing up her gear and preparing to leave, she had a sudden hunch. “WATSON, display all augmented reality content and channels associated with this residence please.”

“Ah, yes yes, good idea Ma’am. Complying.” WATSON looked like he was staring off into the distance at something vaguely interesting, while a wide variety of virtual objects began popping into existence. Normally, this would only be visible to the residents and friends that have access to their channels. Some abstract art materialized on one wall, shifting patterns and undulating waves rippling across the largest piece, their smooth motion was mesmerizing. A few virtual pets popped into existence next and started scampering around playing at some learning game intended for young children. A wonderfully detailed plan for a new house slowly appeared on the dining room table complemented by a soft woman’s voice reciting a sales pitch and mentioning a number of optional additions that could be purchased.

WATSON frowned and coughed politely. “I’m sorry, but there seems to be some additional content here that is restricted. It is not listed on the normal public and private channels. It may be an illegal hack. Shall I attempt to access?”

Kendra considered for a moment. Normally, law enforcement personnel have access to all AR content, public and private, within the domain of a crime scene, but there were some levels of protection and privilege that required a court order or security clearance to access. In cases like these, discretion was usually prudent and it was safe to obtain a warrant first. Then again, there was a strong possibility it was an illegal hack and this was a murder scene, not a regular crime scene. Kendra’s curiosity and intuition got the better of her.

“Force access WATSON, on my authorization. All means necessary.”

“Yes Ma’am. I shall do my best”. WATSON’s eyebrows furrowed and little beads of sweat began to form on his virtual brow. A few long minutes passed and Kendra started wondering if WATSON had locked up…he hadn’t moved in a bit and even flickered a few times, which was extremely unusual. She was about to give up and restart his program when he lurched with a gasp and a pained look on his face.

“Ahem, that was extraordinarily difficult, but I seem to have succeeded. A spot of tea would be really nice methinks.”

“Thank you WATSON, what is the location of the hidden content?”

“In the living room I believe. Shall we investigate?” queried WATSON.

“Of course; this should be interesting.” Kendra grinned and headed towards the living room. She stopped short at the doorway and stared at the center of the room in disbelief. A massive floating black skull hovered there, blood-red fire silently blazing in its hollow eye sockets, and a nasty black ichor dripping out of its mouth on to the carpet. The pools of liquid that formed stretched out and oozed across the rug to form intricate letters spelling something out in a bizarre language she did not recognize.

“Oh, my, this cannot be good.” WATSON said, stating the obvious.

“No kidding. Begin scanning the usual databases for gang signs, military unit insignia, secret societies, tattoos, and ancient symbology. I think we may have stumbled onto something that we weren’t meant to discover” said Kendra. “Let’s head back to the office and start putting the pieces together.”

The next several days were a blur for Kendra. Most of her time was spent processing evidence, populating the database with all of the information and media, and focusing every remaining waking moment trying to research the origin and meaning of the skull. It didn’t take too long to establish a timeline of the crime and how the murders occurred, but her research efforts resulted in a lot of dead-ends and few leads.

It was Thursday afternoon and Kendra headed over to the simulations room to tweaking her presentation before the staff briefing the next day. The higher-ups were demanding some progress and wanted to look at her work so far. She went to Room Three, which she had reserved earlier, and looked around. Room Three was entirely empty and slightly larger than a racquetball court. The walls and floor were painted a light grey color with thin black registration marks at every corner. She thought it was pretty depressing and wanted to get started.

She touched the corner of her glasses and went through the usual initialization and authentication process. “Load SIM four-zero-three, set location to living room.” Kendra paused and waited while her command was processed. After a few second a photorealistic 3D mirror of the crime scene faded into existence. Every detail was reproduced exactly and to scale, all based on the visual data she had recorded during her initial walkthrough and subsequent evidence collection at the scene.

Kendra continued giving the main computer additional commands, and after half an hour or so, the victim’s bodies were also visible. Faint red beams crossed the room, originating at each of the areas where the bullets were recovered, giving her a good idea where the killer or killers had stood and fired from. All of the fingerprints that were taken were also referenced, faintly glowing various shades of green. She touched a pair that was on the coffee table and a small window materialized above the prints with a zoomed in version and information about who the prints belonged to. In this case, the prints were marked as unknown and not in any of the usual fingerprint databases.

She moved on, making notations and observations to each area of evidence. Everything was checked and rechecked. Kendra reviewed all of the collected data and media, making sure everything was properly linked to the relevant objects. If there were any questions at the meeting, she literally wanted everything at her fingertips. All it would take was a brief touch on anything (or anyone) and all of the reports, photographs, video clips, and lab data would be instantly viewable to anyone in the room.

Once she was satisfied with everything, Kendra started tweaking the reconstruction of the crime based on the evidence they had so far. She started by tracking backwards from what the Police discovered when they responded to the crime, continually adjusting the position of each of the victims as she worked through the timeline. When she finished, she directed the system to fill in the blanks based on the forensic data already in the database.

After the processing was complete, she would be able to view a realistic recreation of the crime from any angle and perspective. The combination of the 3D objects, advanced physics modeling, and actual forensics data made these simulations incredibly lifelike. She had heard stories of the occasional jury member being shocked after witnessing these simulations in court, particularly if the crime was unusually brutal and violent. It felt like being an unseen ghost right in the middle of the crime as it occurred, and was much more compelling than the old way of relying on photographs, charts, and awkward animations on a projector screen. This put you THERE and left little doubt as to what happened. Kendra wondered how long it would be before the engineers would figure out how to implement smell and tactile feedback.

She ran through the simulation a few times and checked all of the datapoints once again to make sure she hadn’t missed anything. It was good enough she supposed. Maybe she should take another hour or two and check in with some of her contacts that were helping her with the skull research and then call it a night. Her boss didn’t take kindly to oversleeping or flubbing a presentation with the brass due to lack of sleep. Tomorrow should be interesting. She hoped the press didn’t show up, that always made her nervous.

“Save all files, backup, and copy to private storage. End simulation.” Kendra looked around at the empty room once more and left for her office.

(To be continued…?)

******

-Excerpt from Working Through Synthetic Worlds, Chapter 11, Augmented Reality Tools for Enhanced Forensics Simulations and Crime Scene Analysis by Robert Rice

2010, Year One: Decade of Ubiquity

I’ve blogged in the past about Future Vision and the coming Decade of Ubiquity and my predictions for what might occur between now and 2012, which is a bit beyond the current crop of 2010 predictions by some really smart people as aggregated by Games Alfresco. I’ve always had a knack for thinking ahead, and more often than not, I’ve been too early. I started a company in 1995 to build the first real-time 3D MMORPG (during the days of VGA and 2D sprite “3D” graphics) with a strong emphasis on social gameplay, and in 1999 I was evangelizing the digital nation as a virtual world community platform, and in 2000 I shifted to 3D interfaces to the Internet along with virtual goods and microtransactions, and I made a scathing indictment of online worlds and MMORPGs back in 2006 about the decline of that industry’s craft and lore which many people are finally beginning to see and agree with. Of course, back then many people attacked my point of view (notice the low rating of the book and comments on Amazon.com).

2005-2006 was around the time I was designing Immortal Destiny, which was meant to be a true next-generation virtual world and MMORPG. The whole world was designed to be AI-driven and a fully adaptive and evolving ecology that would change based on what players did (or did not) do. We even found some really interesting genetic computation algorithms that we were going to leverage as sort of an artificial life intelligence to control many of the game systems and mechanics. The full scope of the world was to give players the chance to finally be important, and the drivers of the story, on both micro and macro levels, instead of just churning through static canned content. There are a lot of other problems with MMORPGs and Virtual Worlds right now (which I addressed in my book, and are still relevant). Sure, some games like World of Warcraft are successful financially, but they could be so much MORE successful, the market could be bigger, and games could be more engaging and interesting.

Anyway, I tried finding funding for Immortal Destiny, but at the time, I just couldn’t do it. Much of the interest in the industry had moved on to casual and social games and worlds, large MMO projects were getting shut down left and right (remember Sigil and Perpetual Studios?), and it seemed that the only way to find funding was if you were a baseball star or a former employee of blizzard (regardless of what you actually did there). So, I made the call and suspended development. Sometimes, if you aren’t getting any traction, it is best to stop and move on. I still plan on creating Immortal Destiny and shaking up the game industry, but unless one of my blog readers has $20M to drop (and no, you do not need a $500M budget to blow the industry out of the water), I’ll be self funding this in the future.

So, back to the topic. In mid 2006, probably around August when I was at the beachhouse on our annual trip to Topsail Island, and was making the decision to close the doors on the MMO, I started thinking about technology. What the obvious trends were, what trends were developing in the underlying currents of various industries, what was happening on the internet, in virtual worlds, in games, in social media, in mobile, in hardware, software, telecom, etc. etc. This is about the time where I discovered QR codes, Datamatrix, and found a handful of videos about augmented reality on youtube.

I admit that this was a huge surprise to me. The beginning of my career in interactive media was in the very early 90s at the first virtual reality arcade game company in the US (Alternate Worlds Technology), so I was quite familiar with all things virtual reality, which is not a huge leap from augmented reality. I didn’t think that the state of things was as far advanced as it seemed to be, and certainly not accessible. After a bit more research, I discovered ARTag, ARToolkit, DART, and a few other things. I immediately saw the potential here, and a lot of old ideas came flooding back.

To me, the full potential of augmented reality can only be realized when we can break away from the desktop, making it mobile and ubiquitous, while moving beyond the handheld “lens” (i.e. hold up your iPhone and look through it) with wearable displays. Even then though, the wearables must be in an eyeglass form factor, and the lenses must be transparent. This combination is still a few years off (sooner if I had my way), and is the absolute basic requirement for the impending media evolution.

Now, don’t get me wrong. I firmly believe that the state-of-the-art of augmented reality has an insane amount of potential on its own, but to be honest, most of what came out in 2009 was desktop marker based (stable, looks great, lots of uses, but ultimately deployed in ways that were pure gimmick and schlock) or directory services that are pseudo AR. Almost all of the so-called AR Browsers out there fall into this category (and some don’t qualify as AR to begin with). I think what we are seeing right now, and definitely through 2010 is more like the emergence of location based content and mobile experiences, wrapped and marketed as augmented reality. This is ok though. The industry is still barely born, and we have a long way to go. A few more years of technology advancement and industry maturity is required before we start seeing real things that will have a lasting effect on our daily lives.

The point though, is that all of these things calling themselves augmented reality now are just the start. Everyone is getting their feet wet, experimenting, exploring, and beginning to innovate. We can argue about what is or isn’t augmented reality, but it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is the continual push for advancing the technology, the industry, and getting people to start using it. My own company, Neogence Enterprises, has been working quietly in the background on our own stuff with an eye to the future, but I think our goals have been too ambitious for the short term. I’m not satisfied with the current state-of-the-art, and I want more. However, the longer we take in development, the less ability we have to build our own brand and compete for marketshare and eyeballs. So, we are shifting gears a bit and will be releasing our own AR Browser and a few other nifty things in the near future to stake our claim, while we continue developing the other stuff, and solving the really hard problems that others haven’t even begun to consider yet. Remember, I like to think very far ahead, and work backwards…developing a roadmap that lays out a plan to execute. That is what we are doing.

But what does all of this have to do with the title of this post? Yes, I agree that augmented reality effectively exploded on the blogosphere in 2009 (even though its been around for years) and it will really start taking off in 2010 (expect AR startups coming out of the woodwork, venture capital starting to flow, a couple of failures and closings, some mergers and acquisitions, and some really interesting applications (but not until later in the year at the earlist)). But what is really going on here? If you set aside all of the glitz of augmented reality and consider what is happening on a very subtle level, you begin to see the beginnings of some other trends. Augmented reality just happens to be the umbrella that all of this is getting lumped under and is the easy buzzword to throw around.

* Mobile Paradigm Shift

I’m not going to go into much detail here about this beyond saying that mobile devices aren’t just for making phone calls anymore. The mobile device is becoming the replacement for laptops, and for most casual computing. Even as dramatic as this shift is here in North America, we are still half a decade or so behind what is going on in Asia or some third world countries where they skipped the whole “copper wires in the ground” phase that we are still dealing with as legacy. You might not believe it, but some countries are moving towards a cashless system and the mobile device is replacing the wallet. Think about that for a minute.

The rapid development of smart mobiles (the explosion starting with the iPhone) is nearing fever pitch. The new devices we are going to see over the next year or two are going to be amazing. The things we will be taking for granted by the time 2012 rolls around would stun us today to even consider, yet it is coming.

* Location, Location, Location

I mentioned directory AR earlier as very early implementations of location based content. If the buzz in 2009 was around AR (at least in some circles), I’m fairly confident it will be location based content and services in 2010. As I have said dozens and dozens of times in the past year, who you are, where you are, and what is around you will be important. In the past we have gone to places on the internet to get information, now we will start seeing information served to us on a silver platter that is relevant to where we are. This too will take a couple of years to really get cooking, and we have already started seeing early efforts here (have you heard the rumors of Google considering an acquisition of Yelp for $500m? (Update: More rumors report that Yelp has spurned this offer)). My favorite app for location based anything right now is probably Foursquare. I checked into a local pizza place yesterday (Sauced Pizza) and Foursquare gave me a $5 off coupon on a large pizza. Holy cow. How awesome is that?

* Ubiquitous and Pervasive

Ubiquitous: existing or being everywhere at the same time : constantly encountered

Pervasive: to become diffused throughout every part of

When I talk about the decade of ubiquity, I mean to say that during the next ten years (sooner, really, but it is such a great line, I’m sticking with it), what I define as augmented reality (in broad terms) or “the blend between the real and the virtual” will definitely, absolutely, and unavoidably occur. Computing will become smaller and almost unnoticable, and be part of nearly every aspect of our lives. The various implementations and modes of this will change and evolve to be sure. For now, we are holding up our mobile devices and peering at the tiny screens. In the future, you will simply walk into a room and it will know you are there. You will buy things by swiping your phone over a sensor. Your car will start when you get close to it. You will never have to punch a time clock at the office. You will always have directions to get where you need to be, without having to look it up. Intelligent agents (running on a mobile device) will recognize your voice and order pizza for you, make calls, book appointments, and arrange airfare. Interactive 3D virtual goods and characters (appearing like holograms) will be all over the place along with dynamic data overlays…all designed to your tastes, preferences, and habits.

Every industry and way of life will feel the effects of mobile, ubiquitous computing, augmented reality, smart devices, embedded sensors, and automation. It used to be fun talking about this, reading science fiction, and watching movies, but we are finally at the point where we can see light at the end of the tunnel, and the future we (well at least the older folks) have been dreaming of is rushing towards, gaining speed every year.

Of course, there are obstacles along the way…the economy, world politics, the strangulation of commerce and innovation funding, apathy, bad business models, greedy people, and misdirection of talent and resources, but we will overcome. The golden technology utopia of the future that we all desire is too bright and the siren call is too strong. Yes, it might take longer than we would like, and it might not turn out like we hope (try reading 1984 and Brave New World over the same weekend), but as long as we strive, and refuse to capitulate to failure or weak minded individuals who swear the sky is falling and every ambition is a waste of time, we will get there.

At least, that is what I aim for. As Tesla once said “The present is theirs ; the future, for which I really worked, is mine.” Don’t be satisfied with the status quo, and don’t be discouraged when you see someone else building (and profiting) from things you have imagined or had the idea for on your own. Do it anyway, do it better, and always strive to reach higher and farther than anyone else. Success will find you sooner or later.

So, here is an early welcome to you to year one of the decade of ubiquity. How will it change your life? What are you going to do? Are you going to jump in and make it happen? Are you going to sit back and watch? Are you going to slow down the visionaries and workers making it happen by complaining about things and marginalizing their efforts? Are you content? Or are you driven? The future is yours to create and invent, or you can fade into the past.

As for me, I’m going for gold. I’m never going to quit, I’m never going to be satisfied, and I will never settle. I may have to walk in smaller steps at times, but every one of those steps is leading to a leap.

I can’t wait.

Robert